Investors are holding their breath as Capillary Technologies India Limited approaches the close of its ₹877.50 crore IPO, with wildly conflicting reports on grey market premium (GMP) and subscription numbers casting doubt over investor appetite. As of November 17, 2025, just one day before the subscription window shuts, the unlisted shares of the Bengaluru-based SaaS firm are trading anywhere from a ₹23 to ₹29 premium over the upper price band of ₹577 — a sharp drop from a peak of ₹50 just days earlier. The twist? Some outlets say the IPO is 52% subscribed, others claim it’s barely over 46%. And no one agrees on the exact listing date. This isn’t just noise — it’s a red flag for retail investors betting on what was once seen as a hot tech listing.
Conflicting Numbers, Confused Markets
The confusion stems from how differently sources are interpreting the same data. Outlook Money reported on November 17 that the GMP had collapsed by over 42% in three days, falling from ₹50 to ₹29 per share. That’s a brutal correction. But India TV News and Moneycontrol cited figures closer to ₹23–25, suggesting a more stable 3.99%–5% premium. Meanwhile, Moneycontrol claimed the retail portion was fully subscribed, while Outlook Money said overall subscription stood at just 46% as of 3:30 PM IST. These aren’t minor discrepancies — they’re signals of deep uncertainty. The grey market, where unlisted shares trade informally before listing, is supposed to be a leading indicator. But when it swings from bullish to bearish in 72 hours, it’s telling you something’s off: either the data is unreliable, or sentiment is fraying fast.Who’s Behind the IPO?
The offering is being managed by three heavyweight financial firms: JM Financial Limited, IIFL Capital Services Limited, and Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Private Limited. The registrar, MUFG Intime India Private Limited, is handling the technical side under SEBI’s watchful eye. The IPO structure is split: ₹345 crore in fresh equity (5.98 million shares) and ₹532.5 crore via offer-for-sale (9.23 million shares). That means a majority of the proceeds go to existing shareholders — not the company. Investors should ask: why are promoters cashing out so heavily right before listing? Is this a liquidity event disguised as growth capital?Where’s the Money Going?
Capillary says the net proceeds will fund three key areas: ₹120 crore for cloud infrastructure, ₹151.54 crore for product R&D, and ₹10.32 crore for new computer systems. The rest? Acquisitions and general corporate use. That’s not a surprise — it’s standard for SaaS firms. But here’s the catch: the company has been profitable for years. Why raise capital now? Analysts suspect it’s less about funding growth and more about creating an exit path for early investors. The timing is curious, too. The Indian tech IPO market has cooled since 2023. PhysicsWallah’s IPO, for instance, is trading at a ₹117.5 GMP — nearly double Capillary’s peak. Yet Capillary’s valuation feels stretched. Is the market rewarding growth, or just hype?Competition and Context
Capillary isn’t the only IPO in town. On the same day, Fujiyama Power Systems closed its ₹828 crore offering — and it’s already seeing strong post-listing momentum. Then there’s Tenneco Clean Air, another tech-enabled industrial player. The market is being pulled in multiple directions. Retail investors, already wary after the 2024 IPO routs, are now playing it safe. The fact that subscription numbers are so low — even at 52% — is alarming. For context, the average IPO in 2024 crossed 100% subscription within the first 48 hours. Capillary is struggling to hit half that. That’s not just a weak showing — it’s a warning.What Happens Next?
The subscription window closes on November 18, 2025. Allotment details will be finalized by November 19. Listing is expected on either November 20 or 21 — a one-day difference that’s causing panic among traders. If shares open below ₹580, the GMP collapse will be confirmed. If they open above ₹600, the ₹29 premium was just a temporary dip. Either way, the first trading day will be a referendum on investor confidence in Indian tech IPOs. SEBI’s rules demand a 2-day gap between close and listing — but the market doesn’t care about rules. It cares about momentum. And right now, momentum is gone.Why This Matters
Capillary Technologies isn’t just another SaaS startup. It’s one of India’s few profitable, enterprise-grade tech firms with deep roots in retail analytics. Its platform powers loyalty programs for giants like Reliance Retail and Tata Cliq. But profitability doesn’t always translate to stock market love. The last three tech IPOs — Paytm, Zomato, and Policybazaar — all saw massive first-day pops… followed by brutal corrections. Capillary’s story could be the same. The market is no longer rewarding growth at any cost. It wants profitability, clear paths to scale, and honest capital use. Capillary has two of those. The third? That’s still in question.Frequently Asked Questions
What does a declining grey market premium mean for Capillary’s IPO?
A falling GMP signals weakening investor enthusiasm before listing. Capillary’s GMP dropped from ₹50 to ₹29 in just three days — a 42% plunge — suggesting retail and HNI investors are pulling back. While GMP isn’t a guarantee of listing price, it’s a strong sentiment indicator. A sustained drop like this often precedes underwhelming debut performances, especially when subscription rates hover below 50%.
Why is there such a big difference in subscription numbers between sources?
Subscription data is updated in real-time by stock exchanges, but media outlets report at different times and may include or exclude categories like anchor investors or qualified institutional buyers. Outlook Money’s 46% figure likely reflects retail-only data as of 3:30 PM, while Moneycontrol’s 52% may include institutional bids. The lack of a single official source until the close creates confusion — and opportunity for speculation.
Is Capillary Technologies a good long-term investment?
Capillary is a profitable, cash-generating SaaS company with contracts at major Indian retailers — a rare combination. But its valuation, implied by the ₹577 price band, is high for a business with modest growth projections. If it can expand internationally or monetize its data analytics layer, the stock could deliver. But if it remains a domestic loyalty platform, the upside is capped. Investors should look beyond the IPO hype and study its unit economics.
Why are 9.23 million shares being sold via offer-for-sale instead of fresh issuance?
The offer-for-sale (OFS) portion — ₹532.5 crore — means existing shareholders, likely early investors and private equity firms, are cashing out. This isn’t unusual, but it’s a red flag if the company isn’t raising capital for growth. The fresh issue of ₹345 crore is modest compared to the OFS, suggesting the IPO is more about exit than expansion. Investors should question whether promoters believe in the company’s future — or are simply taking profits.
How does Capillary compare to other recent Indian tech IPOs?
Compared to PhysicsWallah (7.8% GMP) or Fujiyama Power Systems (strong demand), Capillary’s performance is underwhelming. Unlike those firms, Capillary doesn’t have viral consumer appeal. Its B2B model is stable but less exciting to retail investors. The market is rewarding growth narratives — not steady, profitable platforms. That’s why Capillary’s GMP is struggling despite its solid fundamentals.
When will we know if the IPO is successful?
Success isn’t about hitting 100% subscription — it’s about listing price. If Capillary opens above ₹600 on November 20 or 21, it’s a win. If it opens below ₹577, the IPO will be seen as a flop, and the GMP collapse will be validated. The real test? How it performs in the first week. A 10%+ drop would signal long-term skepticism. A 5% gain with strong volume? That’s a quiet success — and a sign the market is finally valuing profitability over hype.